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| User Info | It's A "D", Not An "R" Folks in forum [Ticker] | ||||
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/775-It....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-02-06 09:01:09
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Mm^^ Posts: 2330 Incept: 2008-10-01 
Gone, Baby, Gone
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Good explanation of the big D. And all this time I thought is was 3 consecutive quarters of neg growth or something... Oh, and your employment numbers are wrong. Ms. Speaker has stated it's 500 million a month. She is one really smart lady, too:) ---------- I always leave cookies.
2009-02-06 09:14:51
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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I got a way to shut up Pelosi but I'm afraid she'd bite.
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-02-06 09:17:28
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Pensicostreet Posts: 719 Incept: 2007-06-26 
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Excellent, love the golf analogy. This country is financially illiterate, by now everyone should know what has to happen and deal with it.
2009-02-06 09:18:51
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Stonedog Posts: 1105 Incept: 2008-05-29
New Jersey
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Karl, I don't know how ANYBODY could spin this jobs report as anything less than an effing disaster... ---------- "F**k CNBS, CONgress, Obama, the Democrats, the Republicans, the ratings agencies, the Banksters, the Fed, the FASB, all the government regulatory agencies, the Trilateral Commission, the Council of Foreign Relations, the G whatever, the UN, and any other bastard or big corporate interest that has a fingerprint on this
2009-02-06 09:19:17
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Blindskov Posts: 1453 Incept: 2007-08-22
Seattle
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Very well written. Credit reset incoming as per your 2007 prediction. Change your name to Oracle. ;)
2009-02-06 09:30:14
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Rasatm Posts: 184 Incept: 2007-08-30
Redmond, WA Online
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KD, Suggestion, when you state "you cannot grant $500,000 loans to people who make $8/hour." I would also add: "you cannot grant $500,000 loans to people who make $8/hour, or even grant the same loan to a family with an annual salary of $100,000 without 30% down payment." I suggest this, as to continue to bang into peoples head the need to be no more than 3.5 to 1. Which I try to continue to preach on a continual basis in the way of "gov and biz can do all the bailouts they want but we still need median income to median value no higher than 3.5 to 1 in every county in this nation." ---------- fedupusa.org Last modified:
2009-02-06 09:33:53 by rasatm
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Cocoacash Posts: 40 Incept: 2008-09-27 Boston
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Steal her dentures.
2009-02-06 09:32:54
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Opusprime Posts: 924 Incept: 2007-07-27
Andronov-Hopf bifurcation
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I think somebody watched Tin Cup recently. Great read KD.
---------- To those that give the thieves the keys to their home... - RATM
2009-02-06 09:33:28
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Tin Cup is one of my favorite movies of all time  "Gimme another ball" ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2009-02-06 09:36:10 by genesis
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3930 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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This sounds good until you realize that public sector demand comes from the private sector - that is, the government spends tax dollars (whether today's or tomorrow's), and therefore it can only contract the private sector or do yet more "pulling forward"! wrong Gen - but only in the way that we can't provide the tax dollars in the future to pay for it. So the way I look at it. We're spending China's $$$ from here on out with every $$$ of their funding of us. It ain't going to be paid back without printing. Yet the pull-forward is why you're in trouble in the first place; ergo "more of the same" will not and cannot work. A structural change must take place. exactly right. Please explain to me I'm wrong and let's not get into inflation, deflation (that's one none of us can answer positively)- please tell me that the people will get it before it's too late. I need a little positivity cause I'm one pessimistic bastard today. I'm thinking total economic collapse. ---------- "These are interesting times. We don't trust the government, we don't trust the legal system, we don't trust the media, and we don't trust each other! We've undermined all authority, and with it, the basis for replacing it! It's like a six-year-old's dream come true!"
2009-02-06 09:36:30
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Quote:wrong Gen - but only in the way that we can't provide the tax dollars in the future to pay for it. So the way I look at it. We're spending China's $$$ from here on out with every $$$ of their funding of us. It ain't going to be paid back without printing. "Printing" is a zero-sum game in that it reflects back into bond yields throughout the economy. That's the fallacy in Ben's argument that he can "halt a deflation"; yields rise and that chokes off more economic activity which just tightens the spiral. Its the "monetary flat spin" I was talking about a month or so ago. Will they "get it"? Last time they didn't and we got a World War - that was what created the systemic reset as production shifted back to civilian after the war was over. The shift was back into a clean slate in terms of demand/supply balance and thus the problme was solved. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-02-06 09:39:28
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Resistance Posts: 2724 Incept: 2008-09-26
Down the rabbit hole...
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Gen, you said, "We took "the long way" to the goal last time around in the 1930s, and unfortunately the "structural reset" took the form of World War II, which shifted production to war goods for an extended period and, when they shifted back to civilian output "the old way" was forever gone." I'd argue that the only reason that the "structural reset" occurred here was not because of a shift to the production of war goods for an extended period of time, but because a massive amount of capital was destroyed in the war torn areas (Europe, SE Asia, etc.) which shifted the production of the goods demanded by the world to the one area that didn't have its capital base destroyed; the USA. ---------- Our rights aren't derived from a piece of paper, they're inherent. The only question is if they are respected. We have the right to life, to due process, to be free from unreasonable search and seizure, to be free from cruel and unusual punishment. - Corba2411
2009-02-06 09:42:03
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Richard112360 Posts: 148 Incept: 2008-02-06 Hooterville
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Great Ticker KD!!!Quote:I got a way to shut up Pelosi but I'm afraid she'd bite. Not to worry KD, I've got some reinforced steel condoms I could send your way.
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2009-02-06 10:36:21 by richard112360
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Mondocondo Posts: 3143 Incept: 2007-12-03
Miami
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KD, you are one of the smartest dudes I know. How did a software entrepeneur become so well versed in economic analysis? And why is it that PhDs in economics don't understand the stuff like you do?
2009-02-06 09:42:16
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Mondo, if I showed you the P&Ls and balance sheets from MCSNet you'd ****. I had one firm that looked at acquiring the company come flat out and tell me I was lying on those P&Ls - that it wasn't possible to have those sorts of pretax operating margins. Understanding economics - really "getting it" - doesn't require a "formal education." In fact, such "formal education" is almost always WRONG. But if you don't "get it" you can't successfully run a business for very long without using some sort of creative bull**** that ultimately WILL collapse on you. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-02-06 10:00:43
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Wisc-xc Posts: 4828 Incept: 2007-07-14
outside chicago
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Those who can, do. Those who can't, get Ph.D's
2009-02-06 10:08:17
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Guydaley Posts: 10915 Incept: 2007-07-10
Missouri & Wyoming Online
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There is a big problem with THIS recession as it is always being compared to the FIRST recession. The sheeple won't think this depression is bad until we all dress up in antique clothes and stand in a soup line with just shades of black and white (recall all photos back then were black and white?). Because of this general point of view, its going to delay the eventual reset that we must have in order to start filling the hole back in. Our moron reps are still competing amongst each other to bring home the bacon to their districts. Until they start thinking about whats best for this nation as a group, nothing is going to change. ---------- 2/17/09 = Hogzilla bill was signed = THE POINT OF NO RETURN = Cheers to the Reset, LONG LIVE THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY! STARVE the BEAST! Adopt a J6P. Last modified:
2009-02-06 10:52:28 by guydaley
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Ruffcut Posts: 2205 Incept: 2007-07-07 Mushagain
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PhD's study all the mechanics so they can teach you to figure it out yourself. If you pay em enuff, they'll even spoon feed it to you. They may design and refine models, but only in hypothetical theory. I don't think any of them have a model for a monster turd of fraud, thrown into the mix. They work with model pricing, supply and demand stats, that can be critical to business planning. When they know the "real" life stats of your, say, citibank stats, they can only come to the obvious conclusion. "you are so far in the hole, face it, you're ****ing broke." No one has create a successful "humpty dumpty" model. ---------- Support locally, and **** off globally!
2009-02-06 10:19:05
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Mondocondo Posts: 3143 Incept: 2007-12-03
Miami
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KD, agreed. There is a lot of bull**** taught in academia. As an alumni of Columbia University, I get their alumni magazine. The lead article last month was about how the business school was utilizing the current crisis as a sort of working laboratory, and, lo and behold, the professors were finding out that they had never seen anything like this, that the tried and true economic theories didn't seem to be working, and that they were revising their curriculum as they went along to try to account for what was wrong with the theories. Fascinating stuff, but so depressing that the best and the brightest are so far behind the curve. What ever happened to common sense as a part of economic analysis?
2009-02-06 10:23:46
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Mm^^ Posts: 2330 Incept: 2008-10-01
Gone, Baby, Gone
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They should change the requirement for congress, to mandate that all who serve on any committee, first prove that they have run a successful business, from start-up, for at lest 5 years. All this **** would stop........
---------- I always leave cookies.
2009-02-06 10:25:13
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Blackswan Posts: 3602 Incept: 2007-11-06
Ponzi Roller Coaster
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Sorry KD you are wrong at least according to some dude from Smith Barney on the radio this morning. He said we are getting out of the recession soon becuase people are beginning to spend again. Uggh ok. Maybe .gov is spending again. What a  ----------
2009-02-06 10:25:37
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Synchronicity Posts: 483 Incept: 2008-07-20
40° 15' 1
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Gen, you nailed it spot on. Unfortunately, "D" is the operative and there is no where to hide from it.
---------- the forgotten man...."He is the man who is never thought of...He works, he votes, generally he prays---but he always pays..." Wm. G. Sumner, 1883 ...It took man 5000 years to put wheels on his luggage...
2009-02-06 10:30:46
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Geckogm Posts: 1661 Incept: 2007-06-26
Canyon Lake
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.
2009-02-06 10:31:09
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Thewad Posts: 168 Incept: 2007-06-26 Ontario Canada
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Depression is the correct definition. My neighbour just lost his job, his married daughter was just advised that her company is closing in 3 months, my other neighbour's step-son just got laid off from Navistar. Glad I'm retired....Can't be laid off ! ! ! I am now beginning to fear for the future for my children and grandchildren who have very little say in what is going on. By the way just listened to Mark Faber on Bloomberg who also stated we were in depression and basically advised cram down of the banks using the FDIC to get out of the financial mess. Very good piece.
2009-02-06 10:36:15
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